amsterdamtrader — bank

Posts tagged “bank”

How much is a trillion dollar, really

Written by Jack. Posted at 10:38 am on March 11th, 2009
On the right we see a pallet of 100 dollar bills, and a man – let’s call him Timothy. This stack of cash is worth 100 million dollar. You’ll need a lot of pallets to stock one trillion dollar. See here to get a grasp how many pallets you need for a trillion dollar. Notice that our down-to-earth friend Timothy is still standing there on the left side, and the pallets are double stacked.

Dawn of the zombie banks

Written by Jack. Posted at 2:42 pm on February 26th, 2009
Editors in the financial press need a lot of imagination to describe the distressed world around us. Cutting jobs, slashing dividends and reducing estimates are the most common lines on the front page and hardly leave any room for poetic creativity. Enter the zombie banks.

The term financial “Zombies” has been coined by economist Edward Kane to describe the problems of Japan’s lost decade. Zombies have been Big in Japan for two decades now. According to Douglas Diamond and Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago the “Curse of the Zombie Banks Haunts Fed“, as published this week.

In short, the weak banks can’t sell their assets at current market prices as it would put them out of business. These zombie banks can only survive by soaking money from the government. The money flowing into the crappy bank doesn’t find its way back to the society in the form of profitable loans, it just disappears in the ever-growing black hole. The zombies won’t add any value to the economy and block the way to revitalizing the financial system. A natural solution would be the zombies banks to fail, selling their toxic assets in a fire sale into stronger hands.

As happens with most of our problems, closing your eyes won’t make zombies disappear. The best advice for Obama and his economic team is get out their shotguns and aim for the head. It’s not painless, as the zombies will remind you of former respected friends – just keep in mind they are already dead. Apart from the final scene in Shawn of the Dead, no zombie will ever make it back to a useful life. And the toxic debts aren’t a comedy.

The zombie metaphor sounds too good to be true, and it is. In reality the zombie banks are hard to kill without massive collateral damage, where George A. Romero’s undeads can be gunned down with a single shot between the eyes. His zombie’s are scary because of they are with many, financial undead’s aren’t that numerous. They are just… massive.

Fortis shareholders complicate things

Written by Jack. Posted at 7:22 pm on February 11th, 2009

Sometimes there’s a news story in the financial markets which requires a lot of homework and flow charts to understand what’s going on. It’s seductive to skip the whole issue and spend your time on other things. The mess around Fortis is a perfect example of a running news story I’ve decided to stop following. The shares are suspended anyway, I don’t own any of them nor am I planning to buy some in the future.

The bank insurer has its roots in three countries, a lot of different special divisions like the remains of ABN AMRO. A lot of politicians involved, lawyers and taxpayers money. And Madoff, too. The bank more or less failed in the fall of 2008, got split up between the Dutch government, BNP Paribas, Belgium and Luxembourg. You need three dimensional flow charts to follow all the holdings and transfers.

Today’s real time news from the extraordinary meeting of shareholders proved to be a lot of fun, with an angry crowd of shareholders targeting the board. They turned down the carve up of the bank, making matters extremely complicated. The Dutch government announced today their purchase of Fortis Holland (including ABN AMRO) was a done deal. That’s very nice, but shareholders voted against it. And BNP Paribas may even leave the field altogether.

Almost all the quotes of the CIA Superior in Coen Brother’s recent movie Burn After Reading apply to the Fortis mess as well. “Report back to me when it makes sense“. Hope to read a fine summary in the papers before Christmas.

Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve got him

Written by Jack. Posted at 9:29 am on January 27th, 2009

Hedge fund manager Paulson did it again. As a present day Gordon Gekko pocketing 270 million pound on short selling Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). While this is excellent news for mister Paulson and his family – consequences for the hedge fund industry will follow shortly. Politicians will point their fingers at this evil mastermind, the destructing satan of our economy. This policial opportunity is too good to miss. Call for a renewed short-selling ban to “save our banks and the people’s savings“.

Lies, statistics and bubble charts

Written by Jack. Posted at 9:01 am on January 22nd, 2009


“There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics”, a famous quote attributed to the British politician Benjamin Disraeli. As of today we can add the bubble charts. Researchers from JP Morgan messed up their data on the capitalization of banking stocks terribly. The lay offs apparently have reached the researchers in the basement, wife and children have been put to work. Confusing diameter with area leads to chart junk, overstating the impact of the crisis (yes, overstating). Heard they left out Fortis of the research – the remaining market cap couldn’t be visible on pixel level. A decent and less dramatic graph from portfolio.com.

Click for larger image of the bubble chart.